Link: ‘The console needs to die and Nintendo should be the one to pull the trigger’

Polygon ran an interesting piece about what Nintendo’s role could be in reshaping the console industry for a smartphone world.

‘The console needs to die and Nintendo should be the one to pull the trigger’

The piece is well worth a read, but I think it muddies it’s own points a bit by getting lost in the realms of fan-fiction.

The title of the piece makes the statement: “The console needs to die and Nintendo should be the one to pull the trigger”.

I’d find it more interesting to ask the question: “Is the console going to die, and is there any way Nintendo can capitalize on it’s death to regain relevance?”

Will the console metaphore die?

Ultimately, I’d define the “console gaming market” as the idea of gaming in front of a big screen TV.

As strange as it is for someone who writes about mobile games to have that opinion, I think gaming in front of a big screen TV on a couch is a fundamentally different experience than gaming on a mobile phone screen, and I think this experience is going to continue to be sought after by consumers.

As long as consumers demand to play games in front of a big TV, something will exist fulfill that purpose and capitalize on the demand.

This does not mean consumers will continue buying $400 boxes to fulfill this demand.

Disruption theory suggests that microconsoles will eventually proliferate at a rapid rate due to low costs, and will improve in capability to the point that traditional-style consoles will be pushed further up-market, further reducing their platform viability, creating a vicious cycle.

The steady progress of technology dictates that this will start very soon. The demands of HD and 4K video streaming in TVs and TV service boxes require increasingly powerful hardware under the hood, and this hardware is more than capable of playing games.

I’m not entirely sure how this new market will play out in respect to the existing console market, but I’m absolutely convinced its coming sooner rather than later. It’s partly why I launched this website.

This does not spell the death of console gaming. It heralds the evolution of console gaming as something with the potential to be as prevalent as watching movies or television.

Nintendo

As for what role Nintendo could have in this world, I’m less optimistic.

Nintendo has shown an understanding of the concept of low-end disruption, but at their core, they’re fundamentally tied up in the idea of doing everything themselves. Unless this changes, I think they’re in trouble.

The number of companies selling “game consoles” for well under $100 will expand drastically as component prices fall. The game companies who succeed will be the ones who are able to put their games on as many platforms as possible. The hardware companies who succeed will be the ones able to get the most content on their devices.

Nintendo would need to offer a device so compelling that people buy Nintendo’s $100 microconsole instead of Apple’s, Google’s Amazon’s, Sony’s… anyone elses.

Such a device would need a massive catalog of non-game content, excellent digital distribution, a modern storefront, a platform others are willing to develop for, and likely deep integration with a smartphone ecosystem.

Nintendo has none of these things. Any one of them would be a significant undertaking. Doing all of them, and doing them better than every other player in the industry, is likely beyond Nintendo’s abilities.

As a fan of Nintendo’s games, I hope they find a path to success in the new world of gaming. As an analyst of the industry, I don’t know what this path would be.